Where Toronto’s Housing Market Sits Today: A 15 Year Perspective

The Toronto housing market in 2025 is slower and more cautious, but it has not collapsed. Looking across the last 15 years of data, today’s environment reflects a meaningful shift in activity levels, not a breakdown in pricing.

Reviewing both freehold homes and condos together helps clarify what has changed and what has not.

The 2017 Inflection Point

In 2017, the market hit a clear policy inflection point. Ontario introduced the foreign buyer tax, and mortgage qualification rules tightened, both aimed at cooling demand. Sales volumes declined and never returned to early 2010s levels, even during periods of strong price growth.

This shift permanently changed how the Toronto market functions.

Freehold Homes: Lower Activity, Prices Holding Firm

From 2010 through 2016, freehold sales volumes were consistently high, with prices rising alongside activity.

After 2017, transactions slowed as buyers became more selective, driven by affordability pressures and tighter financing. Despite fewer sales, prices continued to rise.

By 2025, freehold sales volumes most closely resemble 2018–2019 levels, not the early 2010s or the pandemic surge. Prices, however, remain materially higher than during those years.

Importantly, this is not a low supply market. Inventory is elevated, but buyers are cautious, value focused, and taking more time to decide. That dynamic explains why the market feels quieter without experiencing sharp price declines.

Condos: More Supply, Greater Sensitivity

The condo market shows a similar but more pronounced adjustment.

Sales volumes expanded through the mid 2010s, accelerated briefly during the pandemic, and then declined sharply starting in 2022. By 2025, condo activity has fallen back to early 2010s levels, even though prices remain well above that period.

With higher inventory and more choice, condo prices have adjusted modestly from their peak. The correction has been visible but controlled, reflecting a market where buyers now have greater negotiating power.

The Bigger Picture

Across both freeholds and condos, the defining feature of today’s market is not a lack of supply, but a shift in buyer behaviour. Higher interest rates and economic uncertainty have reduced activity, while prices have shown resilience.

Relative to the last 15 years, 2025 looks most like a slower version of the late 2010s, shaped by higher prices, more inventory, and more deliberate decision making. It is a market that rewards realism, patience, and thoughtful pricing rather than urgency.